How VDL’s big reveal could go bad

ANOTHER TRUMP ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT: The FBI said it’s investigating an incident at Donald Trump’s Florida golf club on Sunday that “appears to be an attempted assassination.” A Secret Service agent spotted a man pointing a rifle through the golf course fence and fired at the suspect, who fled the scene. Authorities say they have taken a man into custody, identified in media reports as 58-year-old Ryan Wesley Routh. Trump, who was golfing at the time, is unharmed. U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris said she was “deeply disturbed” by the incident. Read the full report by our U.S. colleagues here.
MEANWHILE, IN BRUSSELS — PREPARE FOR GRIDLOCK: Expect significant public transport and traffic delays today. Unions are rallying in support of Audi workers, after the car-maker announced plans to restructure its Brussels production site in Forest, putting 3,000 jobs at risk. STIB staff are joining the action, impacting metro, tram and bus services. Follow here and here for live updates.
CONFUSION REIGNS AHEAD OF PLANNED COMMISSION REVEAL: It’s the big question dogging EU world: What exactly will we get when European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen shows up in Strasbourg this week? Will it be the big reveal of the EU’s incoming commissioners, complete with names and portfolios — or more of a “concept of a plan,” to borrow a Trump turn of phrase, featuring a College structure with question marks where names should go?
ICYMI: The grand unveiling currently hinges on whether ex-PM Janez Janša’s allies in the Slovenian parliament agree to hold a hearing on the country’s commissioner nominee in time for Tuesday’s Conference of Presidents in the European Parliament. If they don’t, the Commission is likely to hit the pause button on officially naming a Slovenian commissioner, respect for parliamentary procedures oblige.
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As of Sunday night, the Commission still wasn’t commenting on the deliberations. As we reported last week, Franc Breznik, the chair of Slovenia’s EU affairs committee which needs to sign off on Marta Kos as the country’s commissioner candidate, is demanding to see a letter ostensibly sent by von der Leyen to Prime Minister Robert Golob before he’ll agree to hold the hearing. No word on whether that’s been sent.
It’s a mess alright. Von der Leyen is now grappling with the fallout from her scramble to achieve a gender-balanced Commission. At a time when Hungary is ramping up its trolling — and Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is due to claim center stage in the Parliament plenary as head of the EU’s rotating Council presidency (more on that below) — this all makes for a chaotic prelude to VDL’s second term.
The missing link: One senior European Parliament official told Playbook that if push comes to shove and Ljubljana can’t confirm its candidate before Tuesday, they expect von der Leyen to unveil the full Commission, minus the Slovenian. That’s not ideal, but would limit the Janša-led opposition’s ability to hold up the entire proceeding.
But there’s a bigger risk looming: The Commission could miss its own Nov. 1 start date.
Right-wing drag: German Greens lawmaker Daniel Freund told Playbook there’s a good chance hearings for the new commissioners could drag on for longer than the two-week period currently allotted, because right-wing and far-right forces in Parliament could use their increased numbers to slow the process.
Reminder: A candidate needs a two-thirds majority to pass muster on their first go — a high bar to pass given the current distribution of forces in the Parliament. If there’s no two-thirds majority, a new vote is scheduled in committee where only a simple majority is required. Or MEPs can seek another hearing.
Blocking tactics: “I cannot imagine that the Sovereigntists or the Patriots will cooperate, so the decision [on whether to wave through candidates] will lie with the ECR. How they will behave, who knows,” added Freund.
You get the picture: More meetings means more time, which means the commissioners’ hearings could drag on past end-October. And that raises the prospect that the College won’t be up and running when the U.S. votes for a new president on Nov. 5.
So what? A month’s delay won’t stop the Earth spinning on its axis (though Brussels may stop spinning, sort of). Except, as one EU diplomat told Playbook, “the longer you wait, the longer we have no new legislation and the longer we aren’t able to tackle our competitiveness problem. You want clarity on who does what ASAP so we can get cracking.”
In other words: More dithering at a time when ex-ECB boss Mario Draghi has warned Europe it needs to act now or face “slow agony.”
DON’T MAKE A CLUSTERF*CK OUT OF THE CLUSTERS: The potential delay has led to some last-minute attempts to lobby von der Leyen on the so-called clusters of commissioners around the future executive vice presidents, several EU diplomats and officials told my colleague Barbara Moens.
What’s worrying the frugals: One concern among some of the EU’s frugal countries was that too many top economic and budgetary files would end up in the hands of southern EVPs like Italy’s Raffaele Fitto and France’s Thierry Breton, while the budget portfolio is expected to go to Poland. “All key expense-related portfolios would be in the hands of spend-happy commissioners,” said one EU diplomat. “Several member states are looking at this with concern — we clearly need more balance.”
What’s worrying the EPP: Another concern comes from von der Leyen’s own European People’s Party, which came first in the June European Parliament election. Between Fitto, Breton and Spanish nominee Teresa Ribera, several of the key portfolios in the next College look likely to go to non-EPP executive vice presidents. Several officials want von der Leyen to balance things out by giving more important portfolios to EPP commissioners in those clusters to keep their colleagues in check.
MORE PORTFOLIO SPECULATION: Finland’s Henna Virkkunen is a top contender for a big tech and innovation portfolio, reports Pieter Haeck.
ORBÁN TAKES THE STAGE: Viktor Orbán is currently scheduled to appear in Parliament on Wednesday in his capacity as head of the rotating Council presidency. Manfred Weber, head of the conservative EPP group, hinted at a possible postponement in a post on social media, saying the floods currently devastating swathes of Central Europe (more on that below) could compel Orbán to cancel.
Nah: Per the same Parliament official, the opportunity to claim the limelight in Strasbourg — the more controversial the better — is probably too good for Orbán to pass up.
Not everyone is pleased. While Parliament’s bigwigs didn’t stand in the way of Orbán appearing in Strasbourg (there’d been talk of a ban), Freund worries the PM will use his platform to victimize himself and score points for a domestic audience, given Hungarian media are unlikely to carry criticisms addressed to him from the chamber. 
Publicity? Yes, please! “The bigger the spectacle, the harsher the attacks [from MEPs], the more he will be able to turn this into a victory for his home audience,” said Freund, an outspoken critic of Orbán’s government. “It also shows him clearly at the helm of the Patriots movement.”
Bottom line: The rationale among party leaders for letting Orbán appear before Parliament is to let democracy do its work and put forward arguments against his policies. But it’s not as if Parliament has been shy about voicing concerns about Orbán in the past. If he turns up, chances are the Hungarian leader will put on a show — which is likely just what he wants.
MORE HUNGARIAN TROLLING: The majority of EU countries boycotted last Friday’s meeting of EU finance ministers in Budapest, with only six ministers out of 27 attending, our Morning Financial Services colleague Kathryn Carlson reports. But Hungary’s Mihály Varga was bullish, highlighting participants from international organizations like the IMF and OECD and calling the meeting “a success in all aspects.”
Speaking of the IMF: Its Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva attended the meeting after widespread criticism from EU countries over the IMF’s planned visit to Moscow.
ATHENS LASHES OUT AT BERLIN: Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis is furious with Germany’s request that Greece take back migrants who originally obtained their legal documents in the Mediterranean country, Nektaria Stamouli writes in to report.
Watch it, Olaf: “The response cannot be unilaterally scrapping Schengen and drop the ball [sic] to countries which sit at Europe’s external borders,” Mitsotakis told local radio, referring to German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s decision to impose more controls on all its borders from today. Greek Foreign Minister George Gerapetritis piled on, saying Berlin’s move creates a “breach in relation to the free movement of persons and goods.”
Southern front: Nektaria reports that Athens is looking to join forces with other countries in Europe’s southern neighborhood to resist German pressure to take back migrants. Athens sees Austria and Poland as potential allies, according to Greek officials.
BERLIN STRIKES KENYA MIGRATION DEAL: The Greek pushback comes after Scholz last week struck a deal with Kenya’s President William Ruto under which Germany agrees to take in an unspecified number of skilled Kenyan workers. According to the Kenyan side, this could be as many as 250,000 people — though Berlin issued a strong denial of the claim, saying no numbers or quotas had been agreed.
See the contrast? On one hand, Germany is clamping down on irregular migration and looking for new ways to eject failed asylum-seekers from its borders. On the other, it’s striking deals to take in skilled workers who could help fill its labor gap.
The preferred term is … Expect to see a lot more of this as migration roars back to the forefront of the EU debate. Following big waves of asylum-seekers who arrived in Europe over the past decade, the buzzwords making the rounds in embassies are “controlled” or “chosen” migration.
Migration at EUCO: Per one EU diplomat, national leaders will tackle migration at their next gathering in Brussels in October. Ursula von der Leyen is expected to spell out her views in a letter ahead of the European Council summit, as she’s done in the past, as Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands and like-minded nations ramp up pressure to put migration right at the top of Europe’s agenda and start getting into the nitty-gritty of how to implement the Migration Pact ASAP.
Step on it, buster: “Can we do a concerted push to start this thing as soon as possible?” the EU diplomat above asked, summing up the feeling among countries that want to get cracking. But as the Greek pushback shows, the new fight over migration is just getting started — with southern countries rallying their forces to push back against the north.
MEANWHILE, IN ITALY: U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer is in Rome for a meeting with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. They’ll inspect Italy’s border operations control room, before Starmer picks Meloni’s brain on how to reduce irregular migration. More from my London Playbook colleagues in an hour.
MEPs TO APPROVE “BUDGETARY-NEUTRAL” EXPANSION: Senior MEPs are expected to sign off on plans to create four new civil service departments in the European Parliament at a meeting in Strasbourg this evening. The plans were first scooped by Playbook in June but have now been fleshed out by Secretary-General Alessandro Chiocchetti in a document for MEPs seen by Playbook’s Eddy Wax. 
Cost-free growth? The plans will mean that the gigantic 600-person Directorate-General for Internal Policies of the Union (IPOL) will be split into four new DGs covering economic and scientific policies, structural and cohesion policies, citizens’ rights and constitutional affairs, and budgetary affairs. This will be done in a “budgetary-neutral manner,” according to Chiocchetti’s five-page document.
How to expand without really expanding: But there is skepticism in some corners of Parliament about what the ultimate costs will be, not least because it means creating three more directors general who are paid at full whack around €20,000 per month, not to mention directors and other senior administrators. 
“From inadequate … to highly specialized”: Chiocchetti’s note argues that the expansion is needed to modernize and strengthen the Parliament’s bureaucracy, and to give MEPs more in-house expertise and sway in policy negotiations with the Commission and Council.Creative accounting: The plans say that the new DGs will be staffed through “redeployments” i.e. cutting jobs in other parts of the Parliament’s 7,000-strong civil service, without costing a euro, and eventually allowing the new departments to double their staff. The Parliament hasn’t asked for any new posts to be created in 2025, per its draft budget.
**Psst… Did you know our fifth edition of POLITICO Competitive Europe Week is also happening online on October 1-3? From Industrial Policy to Tech & AI sessions, we’ve got you covered with this year’s unmissable 3-day event! Register to watch online!**
FROZEN ASSETS UPDATE: After months of disagreements with the U.S., the European Commission on Friday floated changes to the way its Russia sanctions work in an effort to convince Washington to chip in on a $50 billion loan to Ukraine. The funding would be paid back using the windfall profits of frozen Russian assets that are mainly held in Europe. Here’s where we’re at, courtesy of Gregorio Sorgi in our Morning Financial Services newsletter …
What the U.S. wants: Washington is worried that rules governing EU sanctions — which must be renewed every six months — make the loan risky, as a single EU country could unfreeze Russia’s assets by blocking sanctions renewal. The U.S. wants the Commission to extend the sanctions renewal period to at least 36 months. 
The Commission floated 3 ideas in response …
Option A: Freezing Russian sovereign assets for five years, with a review every 12 months. Under this plan, a majority of EU states must decide to unfreeze the assets, making it difficult for a single country — the prime suspect being Hungary — to endanger the loan.
Option B: Renewing the assets freeze every 36 months by unanimity. This idea is favored by the Commission and by most EU countries, according to two EU diplomats.
Option C: The final idea, which is seen as the most unlikely, involves extending the renewal period for all sanctions to 36 months.
It’s now up to EU capitals to decide their preferred option. More here.
NOW READ THIS — WHEN FREEDOM MEANS EXILE: POLITICO’s Eva Hartog has this must-read story taking you inside the Russian prisoner swap deal that included American journalist Evan Gershkovich. While in the West the deal has mostly been cheered as a diplomatic success, for many of the democracy activists who were shipped out of Russia as part of the agreement, the feelings are decidedly mixed.
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FLOODS HIT CENTRAL EUROPE: Parts of the Czech Republic, southern Poland and Romania were under water on Sunday after torrential rains caused massive flooding. Other areas of Central Europe were also affected. At least eight deaths have been reported. Social media is full of harrowing footage. More from Wojciech Kość and Tom Nicholson here.
DUTCH OMBUDSMAN SEEKS EU ROLE: Reinier van Zutphen, who’s been the Dutch ombudsman for nearly 10 years, is throwing his hat in the ring for the European Ombudsman election. He’ll be in Strasbourg this week to try to rally support for his bid. Per an EU diplomat, Zutphen’s pitch will be to “bridge the divide between citizens and the government” and “working to open the Brussels bastion up to citizens.”
PORTUGAL WANTS ITS TOWN BACK: Portuguese Defense Minister Nuno Melo revived a nearly 225-year-old territorial dispute on Friday when he reaffirmed his country’s territorial right over Olivenza, a village of some 11,000 inhabitants in the Spanish region of Extremadura, Aitor Hernández-Morales writes in to report.
History lesson: Spanish troops conquered then-Portuguese Olivença in 1801, but at the 1815 Congress of Vienna, Lisbon’s sovereignty was confirmed and Madrid was ordered to cease its occupation. But Spain refuses to comply with the treaty’s obligations and continues to hold on to the site. “Olivença is Portuguese,” Melo told reporters. “It should be handed back to the Portuguese state.” He added that the matter “was not one of the past, but of the present.”
Awkward: Melo’s comments appear to have embarrassed the Portuguese government, which seems reluctant to reignite a dormant dispute with a neighboring EU state and NATO partner. This weekend the minister stated his comments had not been made in his role as Portuguese defense minister, but rather as the political leader of the country’s conservative People’s Party. The Spanish government, for its part, has declined to comment on the matter.
NEW HURDLE FOR EU-MERCOSUR TALKS: Brazil is demanding changes to the almost-finished agreement to limit imports of European electric cars, reports Camille Gijs.
EU TAKES A BITE OF THE APPLE: Apple, the world’s largest company, has racked up fines, taxes and investigations in the EU, writes Edith Hancock.
— European Parliament’s plenary session in Strasbourg; Parliament President Roberta Metsola presides over the opening of the part-session at 5 p.m. and presides over the European Parliament’s Bureau at 6 p.m.
— Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Strasbourg; receives group leaders of the EPP Manfred Weber, S&D Iratxe García-Pérez and Renew Valérie Hayer.
— Informal meeting of the EU’s research ministers. Arrival and doorsteps at 12:30 p.m… roundtable at 1:30 p.m. Agenda.
— EU ambassadors meet in Coreper II at 10 a.m.
— EU High Representative Josep Borrell in the United Arab Emirates.
— German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan.
— Home Affairs Commissioner Ylva Johansson in Lund, Sweden; delivers address at the EU Days event; Commission Vice President Věra Jourová participates, meets with Erik Renström, Lund University’s vice chancellor and other academia representatives.
— Justice Commissioner Didier Reynders holds a video conference call with Peter Kyle, U.K.’s science secretary.
WEATHER: High of 20, cloudy.
BAD TRAFFIC: A quarter of Europeans feel unsafe in traffic, according to the annual report by Cyclomedia. More than a third of Brussels residents share this concern, citing poor road conditions and dangerous situations. 
BIRTHDAYS: Former European Commissioner Pierre Moscovici; MEP Ilhan Kyuchyuk; former MEP Jytte Guteland; European Commission’s Diego Torres and Benjamin van Zeveren; NBC’s Richard Engel; Sciences Po.’s Johannes Boehm; Luxembourg’s PM Luc Frieden; Taneti Maamau, president of Kiribati.
PLAYBOOK COULDN’T HAPPEN WITHOUT: Eddy Wax, Gregorio Sorgi, Barbara Moens, Aitor Hernández-Morales, Kathryn Carlson, Nektaria Stamouli, Playbook reporter Šejla Ahmatović and producer Catherine Bouris.
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